NOAA is forecasting a range of 17 to 25 total named storms (winds of 39 mph or higher). Of those, 8 to 13 are forecast to become hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or higher), including 4 to 7 major hurricanes (category 3, 4 or 5; with winds of 111 mph or higher). Forecasters have a 70% confidence in these ranges.
The headline is really burying the lead here and it actually pisses me off quite a bit.
Hurricane forecasting models that have been running for years and have been established to at least be moderately predictive are unanimously predicting the worst hurricane season EVER predicted by computer models.
The temperatures west of Africa in the Atlantic where hurricanes are born and grow are already at levels that the Atlantic only reaches in mid July even in warmer years. This should be incredibly concerning to everybody on the east coast+gulf coast of the US and living in the Caribbean.
All of the hurricane forecasters I have seen are shocked. All of the parameters are in place for a perfect storm of a horrific hurricane season.
At this point all we can do is cross our fingers and hope most of the bad hurricanes miss landfall and fly out into the Atlantic but we are gambling with money we don’t have here.
Global sea surface temperatures, the yellow line is 2023, temperatures have been smashing records going back 30 years or so every single day for all of 2023 (starting in March) up until present day.
Temps look like they are going down, but even if this current downward trend continues an absolutely devastating amount of heat is being poured into the oceans. The next couple of weeks will tell us if this was some kind of weird super el nino we are coming out of and that is where the heating was coming from or whether we have entered a new climate paradigm and if that doesn’t scare you that climate scientists can’t tell yet you are frankly an idiot.
All the alarms are blaring, this is giving lots of indications we are on a far worse and faster timeline than the current mainstream media/politics narrative is acknowledging (and by extension what climate scientists can actually say in public without getting shamed or fired).
https://climatereanalyzer.org/clim/sst_daily/
*lede
Also, this is the whole reason why it’s becoming impossible for people in Florida to get insurance. The same will start happening with other states too as this weather worsens. This isn’t anything new or unheard of though in the sense that anyone who has been listening to climate scientists was expecting this and much more. It’ll only get worse, yay!
No, this is completely unheard of in forecasting, the global sea surface temperatures since march 2023 are totally unheard of.
This year, 2024, will be the year a good chunk of the world comes to terms with how brutally climate change is already here. If this swing of sea surface temperature is indicative of a new paradigm and not a temporary anomaly the scale in terms of raw energy of this change will undoubtedly lead to climate scientists and geologists in retrospect placing the true beginning of the Anthropocene proper in march 2023.
Sorry not trying to be difficult, I just want to emphasize climate scientists dont know why sea surfaces are so incredibly high right now, it is very possible some hidden breaking point in the convection of the heat transfer going on in the worlds oceans has switched to a less efficient heat sink system and are now directly heating heating up more rather than just moving the heat. Climate scientists don’t know. Sure taking sulphur out of shipping fuels definitely had someeee impact, but the energy imbalance right now is titanic and I don’t think shipping fuel sulfurs account for it all.
Texas rates are already blowing up