The blue wall is 235-ish EV due to 2020 census changes. DeSantis needs to win Arizona, Georgia and Pennsylvania or he has no chance.
They’ve been busy disenfranchising voters, gerrymandering, removing polling stations, and rigging the system in literally any way they can.
They not only have a chance, but an advantage. We almost took the Senate and House last cycle but despite record voter turnout, a HUGE number of people still stayed home.
Thinking for a second that the Left has 2024 in the bag is essentially handing the election to the Right.Exactly. We all saw how “Hillary has this locked up, there’s no way Trump wins” worked out in 2016. Even if the Democrats are leading by a landslide in every poll leading up to election day, we should still act as though it’s a 50-50 race with every vote potentially tipping it one way or the other.
Plus the GOP has a lot of people on social media talking about how terrible both sides are and how they’ll just stay home, which is squarely aimed at depressing Democratic turnout.
Yea both sides are not the same. Republicans hurts women, LGBTQ community, minorities, the poor, the middle-class, children, workers and non Christians.
Vote and stop voting for Republicans.
There are a lot of very stupid angry white people.
and latinos. and a minority of blacks and asians. That forms a plurality.
crazy conservative people are not defined by race.
lots of immigrants voted for Trump because the funny thing about immigrants is that they HATE new/future immigrants.
a lot liberal smart white people need to get their heads out of their asses about the political reality and stop making stupid assumptions about other groups.
Getting smart, liberal, white people to pull their heads out of their asses and come down from their egos is just about as impossible as getting dumb, conservative, rednecks from not voting against their interests.
Let’s be clear that crazy conservatives are overwhelmingly white. While there are people of color in that group, they represent small portions of their communities.
I think you’d be surprised how large a portion of the Latino community is crazy conservative.
*Looks at kern county…*
Yeah, some of the most anti-immigrant people I’ve ever met were themselves immigrants. It’s the classic “pull the ladder up behind you” phenomenon and it’s not exclusive to rich humans.
Funny enough, if the GOP could just stop being so goddamn racist, they’d win every election in the white house and congress for the rest of all time. The only real thing uniting the various democratic groups is the racism of Republicans.
Black voters don’t like the fact that gay or trans people exist.
Latinos don’t like social welfare programs.
Asians don’t like equity programs.
College educated whites don’t like seeing any of the previous 3 groups in their neighborhood, bringing down property values.
Young people don’t like voting.
There’s really not a lot of common values bringing these groups together. Except the general “let’s not be racist assholes, at least openly in public” thing.
College educated whites don’t like seeing any of the previous 3 groups in their neighborhood, bringing down property values.
This isn’t a thing, at least I have never seen that. Most College educated whites look for diverse neighborhoods to live in.
You’ve never even heard of the suburbs?
Suburbs can be very diverse these days, especially older neighborhoods. The barriers to home ownership is largely income based not racial based. Also a college education isn’t part of that equation.
What a strange, wonderful fantasy world you live in.
Ok, can you show some evidence to refute my point? I’m sure there must be something in the red states that backs your statement. Please share.
The republicans will cheat as usual so ya.
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Google brooks brothers riot, remember his father was both a former president and leader of the CIA, and note that I am quibbling about him losing the popular vote and still “winning” due to a poorly thought out and ancient system.
We’re not really sure what would have happened had the Supreme Court not bizarrely intervened in Florida’s recount. But I can be pretty sure that the world would be a very different, and better, place, had Bush never taken office.
What are you talking about? The Democrats committed massive fraud in Georgia, Arizona and Pennsylvania to get Biden elected. I went to bed on election night with Trump winning and wake up and he loses. That never happened before.
Please cite a source on the “fraud”.
Watch them cite Fox and have no clue what happened just a few months ago.
I went to bed on election night with Trump winning and wake up and he loses. That never happened before.
Hah, someone doesn’t remember (or wasn’t alive for) 2000, and the Brooks Brothers Riot
What are you talking about? The Democrats committed massive fraud in Georgia,
Surely you heard the words from your own candidate when he called the Georgia Secretary of State on the night of the election:
“All I want to do is this: I just want to find 11,780 votes, which is one more than we have,” Trump says, according to audio of the call. “There’s nothing wrong with saying, you know, that you’ve recalculated.”
GOP Candidate talking to a GOP Secretary of State asking for election interference in the favor of the GOP. Where is the election fraud?
Arizona
You mean the one that has has MULTIPLE recounts including by paid contractors of supporters of the GOP and STILL didn’t find votes showing Trump winning?
That’s really strange… almost as if they count the mail in ballots last, and those drastically skewed blue. You know, since the GOP spent months attacking the idea of mail in ballots during a pandemic, so their people didn’t use them as much. 🤔
Damn dude, you need to read up on this outside of your current bubble. This comes across incredibly naive.
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Dems votes come in late because
- urban counties take more time to count
- big blue states are in different time zones
- vote by mail was adopted by Dems who were worried about getting covid in polling places, and those votes take longer to count.
Also, items 1 and 2 have been true for a long ass time. Presidential election results commonly see a wave of blue ballots come in at the end. 2020 just dialed this up even more because many urban votes were in envelops that were literally being opened and counted last.
It’s not rocket science. This has been invested a LOT and has gone to court dozens of times. No one has been able to come up with a credible widespread fraud claim.
This is disinformation.
It happened all the time. It used to take months to find out who was elected. That’s why there’s a transition. History is your friend. Heck even 2000, we didn’t have a decision for weeks. Just because everyone in your friend group voted for Trump doesn’t mean there wasn’t people voting for Biden. I did, and I know others did too
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FYI, I can still see it just fine.
It takes time before each instance updates when a comment is removed. The comment appears in the modlog regardless.
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1.) It’s still there.
2.) That was being civil, guess I need to finds a different place to discuss politics.
You can debate someone’s position but name calling and trolling community members is not acceptable.
No, you went to bed on election night with only a portion of the votes counted from largely smaller, red counties, and by the time you’d woken up, they’d finished counting the larger, more urban (Democratic) counties.
You only think it was a chronological narrative because that’s what the media, especially Fox, want people to believe so that it seems more exciting. But the fact is that all of the votes were in but it took a longer time to count the more populous counties, because there are more ballots there to count. And more populous (urban) counties are typically more Democratic.
This kind of thing has happened before, many times. The most famous one was “Dewey Defeats Truman” back in 1948.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dewey_Defeats_Truman
The newspapers had to be ready for the presses and at the time they finalized their headlines and articles, the conventional wisdom by the paper’s analysts was that Dewey would win by a landslide. Early returns showed a close race but the analysts insisted they were right, the final count would surely align with Dewey.
Sound familiar?
For the record Trump was only winning in states that had no mail in voting and only in-person voting, which in 2020 was a few solid red states. At no point was Trump ever slated to win on election night 2020. Even Fox News never reported such a thing.
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I believe Hastert was charged with financial crimes because the statute of limitations had passed for the child rape.
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Forgot the /s (or if you actually believe that… the claims of election fraud were basically a sore-loser rhetoric from defeated GOP candidates and all court cases alleging fraud were tossed out essentially immediately due to lack of any evidence; massive rewards offered to find any evidence of fraud also were unsuccessful).
Was this your first election? I’ve gone to bed several times with my candidate seemingly in the lead only for them to lose. I will agree there has been massive fraud in the last several election cycles though.
I’ve gone to bed several times with my candidate seemingly in the lead only for them to lose
This argument (the one you’re referencing not your argument) is just so absurd to me. “He was winning!” Yes, if I sprint out the gate against an Olympic long-distance runner than I’ll probably briefly be in the lead too. No one is going to say the Olympic runner cheated when I lose.
Since you were aware at the time, you should also be aware that the reporting was happening during ongoing vote counting. This was in November 2020, during the first resurgence of Covid, before vaccines were available (which happened Dec 14, 2020). Because of that, many states created mail-in voting processes which hadn’t previously had them. And you should also recall how Trump and the Republican party were hard against voting by mail: a much higher proportion of Democrats would be using mail-in voting, for many reasons, not the least of which was the general right wing notion that Covid was somehow either not very dangerous, or a complete fabrication. (Narrator: It wasn’t.)
During that ongoing count, day-of in person votes were often counted first. Because a disproportionately large number of those ballots were cast by conservatives, the again, ongoing vote counts showed Trump leading early on. That may have made you think Trump was “winning,” but he wasn’t. He was never “winning,” because the winner is determined by, in the most simple terms, “who gets the most votes from all votes cast.” (Edit: Unless you’re a Republican, where you can win the presidency while losing the national popular vote, because the electoral college makes votes in more rural states, which generally vote conservative, carry more weight than votes from more urban states, which generally vote liberal.) While the count was ongoing, only some of the votes had been counted, even though all votes had been cast.
You went to sleep before the mail-in votes were counted. Nothing changed about the votes cast in the 2020 election while you were asleep. The only thing that changed was that the counting was completed.
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You see, the thing is, when you went to bed they hadn’t counted all the votes yet. And they didn’t stop counting just because you went to bed.
We were all aware well in advance (several weeks in advance, actually) that mail-in ballots would a) be counted later in the process, and b) largely favor democrats, based on polling and demographic data.
Republicans also knew this, which became the entire basis for trying to suppress mail-in votes before the election- so it sounds like you might have relied on right-wing propaganda outlets instead of even semi-reputable news sources, who would have conveyed this information to you.
I think the essential problem is the way the news media, especially Fox, constantly promote the idea that election night is a race from a starting point to a finish line over the course of several hours. They do this because it’s more exciting than the truth, which is that once the polls close, the election is fully decided, we just don’t know the decision yet because it takes time to count millions of ballots.
They do this because it’s more exciting than the truth
You’re being generous. They do is because the less voters know about how voting works, the easier they are to manipulate.
Fox News is a propaganda group. They’re not solely profit driven.
Whoa that’s crazy, do you happen to have some kind of evidence of this claim!?
🦗🦗🦗🦗
Hih
Whenever they bring shit like this up it’s always baseless accusations (or confessions because they always say democrats are doing the shit that the repubs are actually doing).
Right now it’s this regurgitated bullshit of how Biden got money from Ukraine or China or whatever other country the repubs are currently hating (but it’s okay that Trump had a bank account in China of course).
I don’t know if they changed stories yet but that always came up when I used to browse/argue on r/conservative and no one ever brought up a factual source. They didn’t even try to make up a source I never saw anything close to an actual source on that subreddit.
oh honey …
If you went to bed early in 2016 would you assume Trump cheated to win in the end? Or are you a hypocrite?
everybody replying to this guy as if he’s going to read a single comment lol
Oh sweet summer child.
They do and don’t DARE let anyone tell you different. They want us on the left thinking they’re done, that they have no chance. But in reality if we don’t get out and vote in a big way there will be a massive red wave instead and we’ll all be standing around wondering what happened.
DeSantis? I’m pretty sure trump will be the nominee. And yes they have a chance. 2016 showed there’s no such thing as a blue wall
Yeah, I’d like to see the basis for the claims that a) the Democratic party has 235 electoral votes more or less in the bag, b) that’s due to the 2020 census change, but OP needs to find a source for their claim that the Democratic party committed some kind of fraud in Arizona Georgia and Pennsylvania in the 2020 election first, so we might be waiting a while on that
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“We didn’t listen!”
kbin link: https://kbin.social/m/politics@lemmy.world/t/152558/Does-the-GOP-have-a-chance-in-2024#entry-comment-593071
I’m assuming (hoping?) that was sarcasm?
Their comment history really doesn’t seem to support that conclusion unfortunately
Also, if Trump ends up in jail, it’s pretty reasonable to assume that all of his support will go to DeSantis by default, and then he would be the nominee. There’s still a chance that DeSantis ends up as his running mate, and then they both collectively gut any remaining institutions of democracy in the US.
I don’t see how that’s possible. There’s no law on the books that says a person in prison can’t be elected President, and you can bet Trump fans will jump all over it.
DeSantis needs to win…
In what possible universe will DeSantis be the Republican candidate over Trump? DeSantis has record high disapproval numbers. Every time he speaks, people like him less. His whole platform is hurting gays and blacks. Plus, they could use his whiny, nasally voice in Gitmo as a form of torture.
So that’s what he did at Gitmo
They definitely have a chance. Georgia and Arizona have surely done some things to make it harder to vote. For instance, if I remember correctly, there were measures to pair down early voting days, weekend availability, and times. They already made it so people can’t provide food and drink to people waiting in impossibly long lines. Requiring photo IDs is a proven way that affects more minority/poor voters which lean left in rural areas. There are many proven ways to “ensure proper” (suppress) voting.
Aside from all that, the shift from true policy to culture war bullshit has seemed to be very affective amongst the right leaning base. There’s a reason it’s happening everywhere. It’s not just politics, it’s God’s war for a lot of people.
I do believe some of the unpopular decisions coming down from the Supreme Court along with measures to ensure trans people don’t exist in public (they’ll come for the entire LGBTQ+ community at some point) in various states will most assuredly get the left out to vote for fear of what might happen in a republican led government.
There is also perception that younger voters coming of age are left leaning, but is yet to be seen how many will actually vote. They definitely have a chance, whether you think that is a good thing or a bad thing. People need to be active in knowing the rules where they live and have a plan in advance on how/when they plan to vote.
On top of that, Georgia only BARELY went for Biden. I’d be surprised if it goes blue again.
The only reason it sent two Dem Senators to Washington is because the GOP picks were just so far beyond unpalatable. Ossoff legitimately performs well in a debate/ad (what with his extensive media experience) vs Perdue who was too scared to even debate him. Warnock does a good job staying quiet and appearing reasonable vs Kelly “more conservative than Atilla the Hun, I actually bought my way into an official appointment and can’t even remember who did me that corrupt favor” Loeffler. Perdue and Loeffler both were actively schisming their own party (with Trump v Kemp stuff). They did real damage to the GAGOP. Then they followed it up with Herschell Walker, who was just a big dumb mean abusive idiot. But that damage has basically been healed through Kemp’s landslide win over Abrams.
Kemp’s GOP takes whatever they want wherever they want in the state. A few anomalous elections have some progressives convinced that Georgia has changed for good. That fight is only just beginning – talk to me when idiots like MTG and Buddy Carter aren’t in the statehouse anymore. All the GAGOP has to do to get full control back over all major offices in their state is do basic skeleton-checking of closets and make sure no Qult v GOP infighting happens before the elections.
I don’t currently see any reason to believe anything has substantively changed from 2020. So Republicans probably have about a 30 percent chance.
Which is scary stupid high to be honest.
What if Biden gets a heart attack at the worst possible moment and can no longer run? It’s not unlikely given his age.
You mean: “Does the GOP have a chance to lose in 2024?” Possibly, as I doubt we are going to see anything like ranked choice voting or electoral college reform in 2024. It is likely a lock for the GOP to win 2024 without serious progress from their opposition in the meantime.
Cheaters always have a chance.
p.s. You’re extra delusional if you think DeSantis will be the nominee. DeSantis is on track to lose the Florida primary.
I remember telling people they were delusional if they thought Trump had a snowball’s chance in 2016. If Trump ends up in jail, DeSantis automatically becomes the front runner.
