Hey let me know if you guys find any extra money floating around. This economy is so good I can barely afford gas and groceries.
Biden’s administration has done pretty well considering all the grenades the GOP had thrown into the road.
Imagine how well people could be doing if the GOP actually cared about anyone other than themselves, rich people, or the Russians.
This has always been the case.
Republicunts ruin as much as they can and stand in the wreckage saying ‘See we were write? Govrmnt Bad!’
And democrats have to come in and fix as much as possible before the entire nation forgets again and elects another right wing shitstain come in to ruin things again.
Rinse and repeat for the last near 5 decades.
I’m so fucking tired of this. So fucking tired.
Biden’s administration has done pretty well considering all the grenades the GOP had thrown into the road.
people who say things like this have never been affected by any former president or the current one in a bad way and most likely do not travel around the US in any capacity
how has the economy improved under Biden? make it make sense
was it that higher minimum wage he promised then told workers not to protest and ask for better?
was it the factory jobs in the south he touted where pay and work condition standards are lower?
was it his obama style communication relief that helped citizens with things like internet bills that is now ending that only helped with about $25?
was it that national health insurance he promised that he never mentions?
yes biden has done some things but not enough or long enough or at all in some cases
everything he has done has been quartered ass at best and never good enough and always blamed on someone else when he fails to deliver like every president the US has ever had
Did you miss the part about the GOP scuppering and hamstringing every attempt by the Dems to make things better for the people?!?!
Pull your head out of your ass and look at the ACTUAL enemy rather than blaming the Dems for not walking as far as they could if the hurricane of traitorous actions by the GOP was not pushing them back at every step.
TIL grudgingly is a word. I’ve only ever heard begrudgingly before.
Apparently grudgingly is done with lack of interest
Begrudgingly is done with envy
TIL
Booming for who exactly?
I don’t know why this guy’s getting downvoted. Rent prices are at record high. APRs are through the roof. Groceries are getting more expensive every year. I’m even paying $20 more every month for car insurance. Sure Trump was worse but let’s not act like everything is all sunshine and rainbows just because it’s an election year.
Me?
Gas prices are below $3 here, only spent $91 on weekly groceries yesterday, and my high interest savings accounts are sitting around 4.75%
My property taxes went up 20% but that’s a local thing…
And I’ll toss this in here even though you’ll cry that it’s not a valid metric, but my retirement accounts are at a record high
Like, what more do you want??
House prices to contract down to a realistic level. Rent controls such that the price of rent is not higher than the price of a mortgage (which gives you ownership of a valuable asset, a tenancy does not).
But rent has to cover all the costs of ownership and then some, meanwhile the mortgage payment is but a fraction of that.
It doesn’t, though. The owner should cover the cost of ownership, as they’re the one who gets the valuable asset at the end. The tenant should pay proportionally less than this, merely the cost of them living there for a temporary period.
If you live with someone and pay towards their mortgage, you can rightfully claim a share in the equity of their house. However, if you’re a tenant and pay the entire mortgage, and then some, you don’t get anything. That’s patently not right.
We’ll have to agree to disagree.
choosing to be wrong: it’s a bold move, cotton. let’s see how it plays out.
$91 for a week of groceries? You either live alone or your poor family is subsisting on Top Ramen.
I just spent $86 at a Whole Foods for what will amount to this week’s groceries (which is making breakfast, lunch, and dinner for two each day). I already had many of the staple ingredients, and no Top Ramen is involved.
Flapjacks.
I can do Jack Black doing jumping jacks, final offer.
A lot of the Fox Business stuff is not crazy politically biased in the way the Opinion primetime stuff is. There’s a lot of old rich white guy conservatism, like Mitt Romney conservative. They’ll spin storylines as explanations, but not basic facts.
Just seems like people are talking past each other sometimes with Fox stuff. Same as the polling “even FOX is saying X Democrat is winning!” well yeah Fox’s polling infrastructure is pretty good, it’s probably because that candidate is leading.
Fuck the economy. Make my goddamn grocery bill go down. Make the fucking rent go down. I’m so sick of the rich dictating every aspect of my life while I barely get by all so they can tell me “everything’s great!”
The economy is booming because of all the money corporations are charging you for your food and rent.
My job is laying off people every 6-12 months despite having immense reserves of wealth. Remind me how great the economy is?
Man, it’s so great right now. Mark Zuckerberg increased his wealth by $29 billion just yesterday! People with fat stock portfolios are coming in here to tell us we’re wrong about the economy! It’s awesome!
In tech by any chance?
God I hate how insular tech workers are. Anything that happens in tech, they think happens universally.
When the economy was tanking and tech was doing great: “the economy is very fair and just, you need to work harder bootstraps blah blah”
When house prices soared: “just buy a house in the middle of nowhere for dirt cheap and keep making your big city salary like me!”
Now the economy is doing great and tech is finally experiencing a correction: “omg the sky is falling!!”
Fuck the economy. Make my goddamn grocery bill go down. Make the fucking rent go down.
These things are actually the things that make up the economy.
The problematic thing with inflation is that when people get a pay raise they think it’s not because the economy improved, it’s because they worked hard for that pay raise. Sure no one’s disputing that you worked hard, but if you worked hard and the economy didn’t improve you wouldn’t have gotten that pay raise.
And yeah food prices are high. Something about a land war in the part of Europe that produces a lot of the global grain supply may have something to do with that. That situation would be resolved sooner if the GOP stopped blocking the funding to go towards ending that situation sooner.
Real estate… yeah that’s because the rich suck. Gotta tax those bastards so they don’t keep dumping their excess wealth into real estate which drives up prices. But again, the GOP isn’t going to approve of that.
Biden has done insanely well on the economy despite the efforts of the GOP to sabotage him.
So be angry, but know who to be angry at. The guys blocking things have a majority in congress and has the filibuster in the Senate. Maybe that should change?
So be angry, but know who to be angry at.
Lockheed Martin and company along with the politicians they own perpetuating endless war, leading us into the abyss while chasing short term profits.
Both the Gaza war and the Ukraine war are inflationary pressures and the US is pumping billions of dollars into both.
Go back to Russia
closest i’ve ever been to russia is reading crime and punishment
you’ve been convinced war = good but it doesn’t have to be that way
Says the guy shilling for a country that invaded their neighbor rofl
I’m an American citizen, not a Russian. Therefore I care about American policy because it’s the one I have a modicum of influence in.
Russia invaded Ukraine - they are the aggressor. However, it doesn’t follow from that statement that we should send billions of dollars worth of killing machines to Ukraine.
Our actions have a) funneled over $150 billion dollars worth of $$$ from public hands (our taxes) into the hands of wealthy private corporations. Go and look up how the stock price for Lockheed Martin reacted to the invasion in 2022.
b) prolonged a war which will inevitably end with Russia taking territory. This has two consequences
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like Chomsky says we are “fighting to the last Ukrainian”. We are absolutely fucking the demographics of a country for the next century if not more. The rebuilding costs will be over 3x what we’ve spent so far - and ill eat my shoe if the benevolent Western countries are going to foot the bill.
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this prolonging has caused global economic mayhem and it looks like it’s going to cost the Dems the election - bringing us Trump and a further fall into fascism.
We are sacrificing the world for $$$. Capitalism is killing itself. It’s as if we are trying to replicate the 20th century.
Hahahaha
From your own arguments, we are actually sacrificing $$$ for the world, not the other way around. I’m happy for my tax dollars to pay to rein in the aggression of Russia and maintain the independence of Ukraine. Fuck Russia. Slava Ukraine. We should be sending them more.
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Voters don’t care about the economy as long as their cost of living situation is worse.
I suspect it’s booming because the cost of living situation is worse
Biden has called out the greed of businesses, but we’ve seen no action from the government to rein them in.
How is Biden supposed to have done anything to rein in corporate greed when he’s stuck with a Republican controlled house that refuses to even entertain the faintest notion of the slightest hint of the merest idea of reining it in?
Does that mean that bidenomics is actually the work of the republican controlled house? I don’t see how biden can get credit for a supposedly amazing economy but at the same time be powerless to do anything because of congress.
He can do some things. He can’t do others.
For example one of the big checks on corporate greed is the FTC, which is independent of the executive branch’s direct control. All he can do is nominate people to the FTC, which has to go through the legislature. At the moment, the FTC has a majority Democrat leadership, which has resulted in things like the blocking of Amazon’s acquisition of iRobot, the attempted blocking of the Albertsons-Krogers merger, the upcoming ban on noncompete clauses, and other reining in of corporate greed.
Biden can’t tell the FTC “you have to impose fines on x corporation”. All he can do is appoint the kinds of people he thinks would support fines on x corporation. And like I said, even that is subject to the legislature’s approval.
Biden can modify student loan programs, but (according to the courts) he does not have the power to wholesale forgive student loans. He’s doing what he can, but he’s not a dictator. We have 3 branches of government for a reason.
But there are things in his control where he doesn’t put up a fight at all. A great example of this is where he not only didn’t fight against border wall funding, he actually went out of his way to waive federal laws to accelerate the border wall construction: https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/immigration/biden-administration-waives-federal-laws-allow-border-wall-constructio-rcna118959
Biden just doesn’t seem to put up much of a fight, whereas Trump was pushing ahead with ridiculous actions like his Muslim ban, whether or not a court would uphold it. Biden’s inaction in a number of areas are excused with “if he tried then it would be stopped.” At least try. And again, if Biden is so powerless, how can he take credit for the economy?
Did you see the headline on your own link?? “BIDEN ON BORDER WALL: ‘I HAD NO CHOICE’”
Biden’s inaction in a number of areas are excused with “if he tried then it would be stopped.”
Yes. Why the fuck do you want him to bang his head against a brick wall? That’s stupid and if you want it, you’re stupid. Things he can do, he should do. Things he can’t do, he shouldn’t waste time on.
if Biden is so powerless, how can he take credit for the economy?
Well, two things. First, like I said, he does have some measure of control over some things, and he has popular influence. But second, and more importantly, presidents always get praise or blame for the economy under them regardless of how incredibly stupid it is to believe that the president can personally make the economy good or bad. So, political reality is, if he has a good economy, he has to claim it, since if there’s a bad economy, he’ll be blamed for it.
Great for who? Not me. Not anyone I know. Two of my close friends lost their jobs in the last few months. And tech layoffs out of control due to interest rates. Fuck off with this propaganda
Chinese propaganda gonna propaganda. Shill.
It’s gotta be “USA #1” or nothing with you?
Not at all.
But I see the .ml and know that you’re almost certainly a Xi puppet.Where’s this .ml you’re seeing?
The one at the end of your name too.
Oooh I see.
So is lemmy.ml associated with Chinese propagandists now? There was me thinking it was just the one that happened to be created by the creators of lemmy…
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=36544805
Clearly explains why a tiny criticism of mine of the Chinese government in Hong Kong was quickly erased and I was given a ban in worldnews.ml
Fuck Lemmy.ml and all the tankie shits.
There’s still a full on America+China+EU sized market crash boiling under that “booming” surface. I don’t know quite how they staved it off with just Credit Suisse and two other banks imploding so far. But it’s not done, it’s not finished, it hasn’t even started.
No idea what backroom deals were done in the financial sector to stop it all for now, but it’s still coming. Otherwise corporations wouldn’t still be bleeding the plebs dry with cost of living and trying to offset their shitty investments on the CBMS as well as fighting tooth and nail to keep students indebted forever, so the party can keep on rolling.
It’s an utter clusterfuck. We’ll see what happens in the next few years.
Credit Suisse and two other banks imploding so far
Don’t forget Evergrande
Brace for a lot of the magats claiming that faux is “too woke”/“too liberal” and claim they’ll have to watch ONAN even harder.
It was extra hilarious when they were complaining about the environmental impact of Taylor Swift’s plane. Like you admit the climate needs help, Fox?
It’s no different from them suddenly caring about the environment when it comes to EVs. “Mining lithium is so bad for the environment!” They post to Facebook from their lithium-battery powered cellphone.
Dangerously close to “yet you exist in society… I am very smart.”
It would be better to just go along with them when they are incidentally correct like that instance, but push towards the logical endpoint of that thought train.
Agree with them, like, “yeah, mining lithium is fucking horrible, and it is literally impossible currently without coerced labor somewhere in the supply chain. Let’s empower the regulatory bodies in countries where lithium is mined to prevent negative externalities that currently exist only because it is more profitable.”
Or “yeah it’s fucking ridiculous how much swift uses that jet. Musk too, and Bezos too. These fucks could never ride in a jet the rest of their lives and we could take flights to vacation multiple times a year for the rest of our lives and we still wouldn’t even be responsible for 1% of their emissions output. Let’s ban private jets and make these fucks ride commuter with the rest of us.”
Except I don’t think they’re incidentally correct at all. They weren’t worried about lithium at all until it was put into car batteries. Because it was never about the lithium.
Won’t matter because the following week they will be saying that a Trump economy doesn’t kick in until the 8th year.
“Economy” is such a bullshit term here. What they really mean is stock market. The real economy is shit. Pay is shit. Healthcare is shit. Real estate is a fat hog that needs to get slaughtered already. When will the people be treated as Too Big To Fail?
Some people are already too big to fail. It’s just not you or me.
Look at Trump. He’s too big to fail. He’s not in jail, despite numerous counts of accusations, from rigging elections to treason to sexual assault.
When you’re rich enough or connected enough, you’re too big to fail.
If you owe the bank $100 that’s your problem. If you owe the bank $100 million, that’s the bank’s problem.
– J. Paul Getty
It’s worse, when it’s us g peoples donated election money for personal expenses, including legal expenses. Do the people donating understand that they’re not even getting a campaign out of their cash? Why isn’t this misuse of funds yet another criminal charge?
Considering the only information they get is within their little bubble which is mostly what Trump tells them, I think they believe they’re helping the most mistreated man in history get out of his very unfair oppression to stop him from saving humanity. And by humanity, they mean America. And by America, they mean white people. And by white people, they mean cishet people.
Ehh, I think the economy is doing okay. Inflation is being controlled/managed. In some cases it’s correcting itself.
Don’t lose sight of the forest for the trees. The media in this country has been really pessimistic about the economy and blaming the admin–to the point it seemed intentionally misrepresented.
This economy could have gone the other way pretty easily especially with the billions thrown into circulation during the pandemic.
If we want to credit Presidents when the economy is bad, you need to credit them when it’s good too.
If anything this admin should get credit for being stable and a source of order in all of the chaos–not the cause of it.
Ehh, I think the economy is doing okay. Inflation is being controlled/managed. In some cases it’s correcting itself.
I have to agree. Some people are still certainly struggling, of course. Homelessness is still a problem in places. Many people still live paycheck to paycheck. But the economy isn’t going to fully right itself in four years, especially with a hostile House that controls the purse strings.
Additionally, nothing has been done about greedflation (yet?). If Congress or Biden can figure out a way to force companies to stop tacitly colluding to squeeze more money from people, I would suspect more people would start to feel more optimistic about their finances (and the economy in general).
Greed will sadly have to wait…when your ship is sinking you gotta patch the holes first, then you can rebuild the troublesome parts.
The US is putting fingers in the holes of the dam right now and doing an okay job of it.
I like the analogy!
The one below mine is better lol.
the economy isnt booming, what a crock of shit, the people are poor and therefore it is not booming
By many metrics, it IS doing much better than expected. Go look it up instead of moaning.
BTW I see you’re on a UK instance. The Tories are an entirely separate dumpster fire, but still related in populist bullshit, to Trump.
The economy is only booming for the rich, anyone trying to tell us otherwise doesn’t care about our well-being. If it were doing well they wouldn’t have to keep telling us, we could see it in our everyday lives.
Gas prices are down. General cost of living is stabilized. Unemployment is extremely low and the percentage of eligible workers on the sidelines is dropping. Wages are up for the lowest income levels and continue to climb despite slowing inflation. Black households, in particular, have seen a significant narrowing of the income gap, more so than they’ve seen in many many years. The percentage of women in the workforce is up and salaries are climbing for them as well. In fact, the post-COVID recovery has been wildly successful when you compare it to post-2008 with respect to the improvements for the poorest among us, which is precisely the opposite of what you’re claiming.
Yours is purely an appeal to anecdote. The data is clear. Unfortunately, as study after study has shown, data can’t compete with vibes, and we just spent the last two years with the MSM (not to mention social media…) telling everyone a recession was around the corner.
If his is purely anctedote, then yours is decontextualized.
Gas prices are down.
Sure. Since a high in June of 2022. The last time gas prices were at this level was June 2021. And the time before that was October 2014. Which is to say, for about 6 years, gas prices were lower than today. And just looking at the graph, they were significantly below today’s level. Just to note, they have yet to return to the levels before the precipitous rise stating in December 2020.
There maybe, as you noted, vibes, but they ain’t wrong.
Unemployment should be looked at with, of course participation rate which has held even for the last year, and how long people have been unemployed which has been growing slightly for those unemployed for 27 weeks or more. This also doesn’t address underemployment which disporporstely effects the young and poor. Underemployment colors one’s outlook for stability in the present and future.
Thankfully, Biden and others in the administration have managed this far better than 2008 for the average citizen. Not having a recession is a good thing. I’ve lived through several. But that doesn’t mean there isn’t looming concerns. Inflation is still higher than the target and instigating further disinflation is uncharted territory.
Data, in of itself, is not enough. It needs to be contextualized to develop political and social narratives. Addressing people with condescension and dismissing their anxieties as mere vibes fails politically.
Housing costs are sky-high. Rent is ridiculous. Good luck ever trying to own a house. And yeah, cost of living went way way up and now it’s “stabilized” there.
And to say wages are up is just laughable. I mean, yeah people are now being paid $15 an hour instead of $10, but what does that matter when food and housing costs increased more than that?
The data is skewed by the people that benefited from raising the price of everything during COVID-19 and then never brought the prices down.
The rich are richer and they are the measuring stick for the economy because they own all the news sources. It is dramatically worse for the poor now than it was 5 years ago.
Don’t let bullshit propaganda fool you.
I feel like this CONSTANTLY happens and people just eat it. Prices skyrocket. Then they stop rising or maybe even dip a little but still remain way higher than they originally were and… Problem solved! It’s stabilized! In fact prices are DROPPING! huzzah!
Makes me wonder if people are really this easily fooled or are they all just being ignored? Lol
I feel like this CONSTANTLY happens and people just eat it. Prices skyrocket. Then they stop rising or maybe even dip a little but still remain way higher than they originally were and… Problem solved!
Literally yes. Prices go up, wages go up, that’s a healthy economy. Take an economics class.
If prices ever start broadly going down, prepare for a massive economic ass fucking the likes of which you’ve never seen and clearly can’t imagine.
Line go up is just a cult, nothing else.
Ideally the economy is just something you need to plan, to stay stable and anticipate environmental and population concerns. It shouldn’t need to go up or down to maintain production.
This “homelessness goes up but so does GDP so it’s okay” shit is unworkable, cruel and unsustainable and only benefits bezos et al
Christ alive you have no idea what you’re talking about. Have you ever studied economics? At all? Or are you just posting your fee fees?
Would you go into a hospital and start lecturing doctors on how their practice is bullshit? Sure, there are probably a lot of things that could be improved, but you don’t have the knowledge to speak about them. Take some courses, then come back and speak from an informed perspective.
“Planned economy” is a 12 year old’s idea of how things should be.
You’re on serious damage control and spouting derivative drivel. “Take an economics class” meanwhile people who did found that set of nomics to be non sensical, because “economics” at its core isn’t about what most people think it is. Cost and worth are two separate things, and the whims of our livelihoods is decided emotionally. Not logically.
“Planned economy” is a 12 year old’s idea of how things should be.
You might want to tell that to Walmart:
Living is more unaffordable than ever. What even is your comment
I stopped reading at gas prices are down. They are up .40 the last week.
The data is clear
The gaslighting is all thats clear. All the data conflicts with your claim. Homelessness up to the highest level ever recorded, housing is unaffordable, food is unaffordable, wages are stagnant, income inequality is the widest ever recorded.
I stopped reading at gas prices are down. They are up .40 the last week.
This is just as stupid as saying because it snowed, global warning isn’t real.
No if you’re going to get the first fact blatantly wrong odds are the rest is going to be bunch of bullshit too
Lemmy: China is spreading propaganda about their failing economy booming in their news!
Lemmy: The American economy is booming! I read it in our news!
It’s almost like those are two different groups of people.
Websites aren’t collective intelligence?
Well both those types of articles are getting upvoted to the front page so I’m assuming there is overlap?
Have you tried submitting anything? There’s very little content, I’d wager you too could get to the front page.
(Not dogging on lemmy,I love this site)
There are genuine grievances in the economy; most notably perhaps the affordable housing crisis. My home’s value is so fucking inflated it’s not even funny. It’s not worth what it is appraised for; none of these houses are. Chronic homelessness is at an all-time high.
That being said — since we are going into election year — we need to frame this not as what we see but what Republicans would normally boast of if Donnie2Scoops was in office.
- They’d be boasting about unemployment
- They’d be boasting about low inflation
- They’d be boasting about lowering gas prices
- They’d be boasting about stock-market being at an all-time high
- They’d be boasting about the GDP growth-rate.
So context matters. By the standards of what Republicans usually tout, the economy is thriving. Which means they’ve got nothing going into an election year… Which means they’re fucked.
Consider that Democrats won a midterm election during worse economic conditions in what is historically a rough midterm for an incumbent President’s party. Now consider the same with the risk of Democracy on the line, abortion rights, and a strong economy.
Republicans are fucked. (But still, get 5 people you know to register and vote). Hence why they’re so desperately clinging to this BoRDEr cRiSis as their only issue that’s sticking — and Biden just called their bluff on it.
People of a certain level and type of education think data and policies mean more than sentiment and messaging. But for many,t he data is secondary. You can see my comment on gas prices and unemployment being rooted in data and vibes. But the vibes for most people are what matters. And the vibes on election day are what matter most to undecided voters. I don’t think either party really gets the sense of dread that most people have and may never get it.
Which midterm are you talking about? I’m assuming you’re talking about the 2018 mid-term when Democrats picked up 41 seats since they lost the House in 2022. But another way of looking at the last five midterms, you see the midterms going to the party that is not the president’s. So I don’t think that the 2018 midterms provide a great reference point for the presidential election. Additionally, those gains in the 2018 election have slowly eroded giving control in the house to the Republicans.
But I wanted to address your strategy first and foremost since you address messaging. The projected map has Biden at 226, Trump at 235, and 77 to close to call. Those 77 electoral votes are spread across six states:
- Nevada (6 electoral votes)
- Arizona (11)
- Wisconsin (10)
- Michigan (15)
- Pennsylvania (19)
- Georgia (16)
In 2020, all six went Biden by less than 5%. In the 2022 midterm, Republicans gained seats in the house from Arizona, Wisconsin, and Georgia. If those three switch to Trump, Trump wins with 272. Having a record showing in California or New York does little to help with these strategic areas.
I’m not too certain what matters to the voters in these six states, but in Arizona, the BoRDEr cRiSis, as you condescendingly noted, probably matters to them. In all six of those states, you’ll need a get out a vote drive to convince people to vibe with Biden. Usually those people are young and have a little more free time. But not when they see a genocide unfolding in Palestine and the Biden administration being complicit. Are the Arab Americans of Deerborn, MI going to come out and vote for Biden and Tlaib again? Will Tlaib stump for Biden? Are young Blacks in Atlanta or Philly going to come out in droves for Biden? I don’t know.
I don’t know what ground work the DNC has been doing, but I hope they’ve built a trusted network to get people to the polls. Either way, I don’t think the “Republicans are fucked”. It think we are looking at a close election again.
I’d wager we can simply call vibes the right-wing grip on shallow political talking-points at the national level, for which they’re pretty effective at admittedly. Such is the nature that lies and bullshit are easier to spread than the complexity of truth & reality. So in that respect, sure, there are many people who don’t have the vibe or feel the sentiment that things are going well — not because the data is wrong, but simply because they live in an alternate reality; an echo-chamber. A place where that data just doesn’t exist.
There is, frankly, little I can think of that we can do to reach these people. On the other hand, I think Donald has already cast a wide net and those who were trump supporters remain trump supporters (minus the dead ones from old boomers dying, covid, etc.). Yeah he’s making sligh tinroads with the likes of certain Hispanic populations — mostly in Florida and Texas, but Nevada is up in the air. The question is whether these inroads outpace the influx of Gen Z and Millennials who overall lean Dem.
Actually I am referring to 2022 midterms, because as you said – the midterms tend to go to the party not the President’s; and if we compare either 2010 or 2014 to 2022, then Democrats vastly overperformed in 2022, turning what was coined the “red wave,” to at best a red tinkle, or even a blue tinkle depending on what you prioritize. Because of the reversal of Roe, youth showed up and offset what could’ve otherwise been a disastrous midterm during a rough economy. We won key Secretary of State positions, Governorships, and expanded a lead in the Senate. Yes, lost the House, true. Though not by much.
If Democratic turnout meets 2020 or 2022 levels, which it should, then I think Biden is in a stronger position now than he was in 2020 due to:
- Having (and thus no longer going against) incumbent advantage.
- A more united Democratic party (than the brutal 2020 Dem primaries)
- Reversal of Roe being a massive boost in turnout
- Being honest here: There’s good reason Republicans fear a Taylor Swift endorsement and voter registration drive.
- Both covid recovery and the economy are objectively better now than 2022 and overall improved across the course of Biden’s Presidency
- 91 criminal charges across 4 Grand Jury indictments will do nothing for Trumpers, but it will be a consideration for independents/moderates/swing-voters, and the polling generally agrees: More than half of Independents polled believe Trump is guilty, and 27% don’t know. Hell, even 14% of Republicans think he’s guilty..
In the absence of major economic issues, I predict the priorities of preserving Democracy, Justice, and Women’s Rights will rise to forefront – especially after campaign spending really kicks off.
It’s really not that big of an issue. It’s no different than the “mIGRanT CaRaVaN” that Donnie tried to fearmonger with as he pulled National Guard from their Thanksgiving dinners to try to drum up hysteria… Which turned out to be nothing. Hell even of the recent MAGA convoy themselves arrived and are confused..
So, what exactly is going in favor for Republicans compared to past election cycles…? The age issue remains a constant with both Presidents. I “condescendingly” wrote it that way because it’s patently a manufactured crisis. There are myriad issues that far exceed in this in impact to Americans overall. Yet I admit that the “vibe” right-wing media projects has this “BoRDeR CriSis” sticking even with some Independents and Democrats. Hence why Biden in a stroke of genius called the bluff of Republicans by giving them everything they wanted, and now they stumble to save face and figure out a way to not pass the legislation because Donald Trump told them not to because it’s literally his only attack going into 2024. Thus, Biden just neutered it.
But not when they see a genocide unfolding in Palestine and the Biden administration being complicit. Are the Arab Americans of Deerborn, MI going to come out and vote for Biden and Tlaib again? Will Tlaib stump for Biden? Are young Blacks in Atlanta or Philly going to come out in droves for Biden? I don’t know.
These are pretty small groups; the BoTh SiDeS false equivalence fallacy is losing its muster as more and more people are made aware of classic wedge-driving techniques during these election cycles. At the end of the day, Biden has already significantly shifted his tone with Israel, and will these people be foolish enough to think Trump won’t be an order-of-magnitude worse in his revocation of rights and complicity in genocides? (Recall, Trump said he’d block all Palestinian refugees… That really sat well with Muslims last time he tried that, didn’t it?). What about Ukraine? We know Trump sucks up to Putin… Will people opt to not vote or vote for Trump, knowing he’ll leave Ukraine hanging? I don’t think so.
I’m not going to say this is a slam-dunk, but I absolutely am more confident now than I was in 2020, or 2022.
So two things and I’ll let it be.
First, the migration issue has gained traction among voters in swing states [2]. Our system doesn’t reward the most popular candidste, but the one who can garner the most votes by state.
Swing states matter. And small, undecided groups in swing states matter most.
All the data and risk assessment mean very little. Politics are emotional. They are in the pain of today and worries of tomorrow.
I think your confidence is on shaky ground. And worry that Biden and the Democrats aren’t doing enough of the right things to be seen as better than anything else.
Well I think we’ve both said our piece and it’s just a matter of time now before speculation turns history. Perhaps more productively we need to ask how we can increase the odds Biden wins by even more, which I’m not opposed.
This is the thing. We have objective measures of the economy and by those measures (the same ones we’d use to say a Republican is doing a great job) the economy is doing well.
The broader left becomes something of a useful tool for Republicans to use in election years during these discussions, because while Republicans agree with leftist feelings about the economy until elected. Afterwards, those same metrics they insist are incomplete or don’t count are exactly the things they’ll tout again to say they’re doing a great job.
Leftists need to get an objective set of metrics together and then consistently grade all policymakers on them. I also think that it’s not solely (or even mostly) up to the president to determine economic policy. Presidents have an effect, for sure, but it’s largely stuff passed through the Congress that impacts the economy.
Well said. In essence, perfections becomes the enemy of good. Because leftists frankly tend to be more informed on the nuances of the economy — and especially what impacts the poor and middle-class — they have more specific demands. Which is fine, but we must always remember that Republicans will never care about those things; whereas we’re seeing legitimate progress and a reshaping of the Democratic platform in just the last 10 years.
Well yeah all those stats look great but the problem is that inflated housing just undoes them.
China is coincidentally also facing their economic issues from their massively inflated housing market with Evergrande (again?) collapsing
For sure, completely agree it needs addressed. But like most things, the origin of this housing crisis largely falls on Republicans. Here’s what I’d do if I were Democratic strategists going into this year. Pivots. Lots of pivots.
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If Republicans push back on Gun Control talk, you go, "okay, if you don’t want to solve that and deflect, then let’s solve root problems like societal stress, education, single-payer healthcare, and guaranteed access to a therapist at any age
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If republicans push back on the boRDeR cRiSis, (a) point out the net-positive economic impact these hard workers fleeing crime & poverty have while (b) pivoting to the domestic terrorist threat from right-wing extremists home-grown here in the US that are the #1 threat per the DOJ.
Combined with the border crisis and affordable housing, Democrats need to go, "Why focus on the small fish at the border and not the foreign investors from China, Japan, Russia, Saudi Arabia who’ve bought up large swaths of land, stifling the American dream? Hell even the King of Jordan owns 2 Beach-front Malibu properties. Look at all the real estate investors and AirBNB jacking up the prices.
Most of the housing crisis needs to be solved at the local level. Zone for density, support social housing (where the city builds the houses rather than developers), design walkable neighborhoods, and support public transportation.
The federal government can play with interest rates, regulate banks, and provide funding for cities to do the above. It certainly affects things, but it’s highly abstracted from the actual work of getting more people into affordable housing.
I agree zoning is a big one.
There are some top-down factors that need to be addressed in my view; chief among them is cracking down on rental properties, and foreign investors/ownership.
Another facet to this is the deterioration of small and rural communities across the country. We have a massive amount of land and yet the population density in certain hot-spots is off the charts. In this respect, I think we need an investment in bridging the rural-city divide. That means promoting work-from home jobs with federal tax incentives, high-speed rail infrastructure akin to the Interstate system that helps link the rural communities to the cities, and high-speed internet for all akin to the investments FDR made for rural communities in bringing electricity to the masses (The REA).
The ultimate effect of this will be de-congest cities where stress is high, bring people closer to nature, and tap into unused land and foster smaller more tightly-knit communities that aren’t so disconnected from the world.
Democrats aren’t going to fix shit lol they’re just going to bail out the banks again after the economy collapses like Obama did in 2008.
And then pepper spray the protestors on Wall Street
Bank bailouts got signed in by Bush though…wtf?
Both of them bailed out the banks. This is a both sides thing.
01/12/2009 11:39 AM EST
At Obama’s request, Bush has agreed to ask Congress for the second $350 billion of the $700 billion financial bailout.
Also Obama was the guy dictatoring against Occupy Wall Street.
… That was a University police officer on UC Davis campus in California and literally had zero to do with Democrats’ direction, lmao. Wtf you smoking this early?
And don’t care — One side is objectively orders-of-magnitude worse. Progress or damage-control, it makes little difference to me.
Them protesting against the direction of Obama bailing out the big banks?
Seems kinda relevant.
One side is objectively worse but you don’t have to spread the fairy tale that Democrats are going to ever fix anything. They are just slightly less worse.
There’s also NYPD cops pepperspraying the protestors if you like that one more but the picture doesn’t look as funny:
New York City settles Occupy Wall Street pepper spray lawsuit for $50,001
Protester Kelly Schomburg filed suit after NYPD officer Anthony Bologna pepper-sprayed a group of protesters in 2011, when Schomburg was 18 years old
I’m certain the lives of these people would’ve totally improved if the banks and economy completely collapsed, right? As with most things, the direction and anger of these Occupy protests — which I was a part of — had a long list of grievances including “banks got bailed out, we got sold out.” But universally all these problems are squarely of Republican origin; and their solutions are almost all squarely obstructed by Republicans.
After all these years, do people forget that Democrats and Obama only had a filibuster-proof control of Congress for literally only months early in his first term? These protests came after the disastrous 2010 midterm election when many of these Occupy Wall Street protesters stayed home and let the Tea Party (pre-MAGA if you’re unfamiliar) take control of Congress with the Freedom Caucus and other bullshit. So that sure did wonders for all the bankers, didn’t it?
I’ll say they’re considerably-less worse. Obama sympathized with Occupy Wall street. I wonder what Trump would’ve done… Send in FBI vans like he did in Portland?
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Ask not for whom the economy booms -
For only the bell tolls for thee.
