

I think we have the opposite going on here - the conservatives are breaking the system in such a way, that it must change. This is the big chance for a 3rd party to destroy the old guard, simply because the old guard is being incredibly dumb and greedy with their own overhaul.
It is simply a question of who can offer the better future. The wealthy dudes who are going to kill grandma by taking away her medicine and money, or the nice lady who wants granny to live a long and decent life?
If Putin dies, a successor might (secretly) align with Ukraine. Something like “If you attack XX, I will remove my troops from ZZ, if you don’t attack me. I will be focusing on a bread & butter campaign if I run Russia. Take care of my rivals in the meantime, mm’kay?”
Mind, I would prefer Russia outright being conquered and Marshall Planned into something completely different, but I would accept the other scenario if the outcome could be decent. In this case, Ukraine gets back Crimea and all other territories, plus security guarantees.