Minnesota will be interesting this year. There are two things that complicate this particular ticket:

• Walz is generally well-liked by those on the progressive side because of his popular working-class policies, but disliked by conservatives and downright hated by a large contingent of Muslim and leftist voters for both his handling of the George Floyd protests and of his apparent ambivalence on the war in Gaza. He’s repeatedly postponed and then outright cancelled scheduled meetings with pro-palestinian protest groups and has largely dodged the question. It might not have been a relevant issue for him as governor but now that he’s on the national stage it’s a bit of a liability.
• Harris is generally tolerated here. Sure enough, bread and butter democrats and moderate republicans find her soothing, but her tough-on-crime stances and prosecution record are a pretty big red flag for leftists and George Floyd protestors (I’d say law-and-order policies are polarizing for MN specifically because of 2020). That, and obviously her conciliatory stance toward Israel means that all the same people who dislike Walz for his notable silence on Gaza also hate Harris. There’s also a fair number of refugees in Minneapolis that makes the war in Gaza an important issue.

I would guess that Stein and West would get those leftist voters but they just as likely might just stay home out of protest. Minnesota protestors are fairly hardened after 2020 and are unlikely to be moved by ‘incrementalism’ or harm-reduction rhetoric.

Minnesota might be the bellwether for how much of a hit Harris-Walz stand to take by their collective stance on Gaza and law-and-order posturing.