Meanwhile, Mastodon dies. Lemmy and kbin might survive because they fill a different niche; however, if instances start federating with Threads and making it possible to follow people on there, then the same exodus will happen.

I agree that it’s a direct threat to Mastodon. I disagree same will happen to Lemmy and Kbin. I don’t see Threats ever becoming a anonymity oriented platform. It’s tied to an Instagram account.

Even if they support it in the future, just like Twitter and Mastodon, the primary users will be real identities. That goes directly against the concept of Lemmy and Kbin.

Not everything fits the same paradigm. We can keep parroting the history just for the sake of it or we can adapt and see that things evolve over time.