Rishi Sunak has confided to members of his inner circle that he is fearful of losing his Yorkshire constituency at the general election, the Guardian has been told.
The prime minister, who would be the first sitting leader of the country to lose his seat, told confidants before a Conservative rally on Tuesday that he thought the vote in Richmond and Northallerton was too close to call.
In 2019, he won the seat with a majority of more than 27,000 and 63% of the vote.
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No incumbent prime minister has ever lost their seat, and only 12 serving cabinet ministers have lost their seats since 1974, according to the Institute for Government.
Polls have varied, with most suggesting Sunak should retain his seat even amid a landslide victory for Labour across the country. Savanta and Electoral Calculus analysis for the Telegraph suggested he could lose it, however.
Conservative activists working in Sunak’s constituency had been particularly alarmed by a drop-off in support among the farming community, some of whom had cited challenges arising from Brexit to their businesses and a failure to control illegal immigration, sources said.
The last time this happened was in 1906 when Arthur Balfour lost his seat in the Manchester East constituency during the Liberal landslide victory.
Edit: Balfour resigned as PM in December in 1905 in an attempt to force an election. The Liberal Henry Campbell-Bannerman instead managed to form a government and thus was PM at the time of 1906 general election. I had forgotten Balfour resigned. So, yes if Sunak is unseated this will be a political first (for the UK at least).