Really interesting arcticle breaking down which groups have moved and where, and providing a bit of depth to the discussion around changing demographics.
An interesting take-away is the fact that the electorate is much “swingier” than it ever has been in the past, with a far greater number of people willing to consider switching their vote compared to historic elections. That makes things a lot more volatile than previously, and explains some of the break-neck changes we’ve seen in recent years (Labour gains in 2017, Tory majority in 2019, potential Labour landslide in 2024).
The numbers quoted indicate much more of a sea change has occurred than I would have expected.
in the 1960s around an eighth of British voters switched their choice between elections. By the 1980s it was a fifth. At the last election Professor Edward Fieldhouse, a political scientist at the University of Manchester, and his colleagues concluded that most of the electorate were swing voters. Politicians see it on the doorstep. “In 1997 around 40% of voters were up for grabs but today it is probably around 70%,” says Jonathan Reynolds, Labour’s shadow business secretary and an MP in the north-west.
Maybe there’s hope for PR within the next 20 years.
Really interesting arcticle breaking down which groups have moved and where, and providing a bit of depth to the discussion around changing demographics.
An interesting take-away is the fact that the electorate is much “swingier” than it ever has been in the past, with a far greater number of people willing to consider switching their vote compared to historic elections. That makes things a lot more volatile than previously, and explains some of the break-neck changes we’ve seen in recent years (Labour gains in 2017, Tory majority in 2019, potential Labour landslide in 2024).
The numbers quoted indicate much more of a sea change has occurred than I would have expected.
Maybe there’s hope for PR within the next 20 years.
Yeah this is a very promising trend. It’s the opposite of what seems to be happening in the US, which I was afraid we would be condemned to as well.
A swingier electorate can only be good news. It suggests that people are becoming more assertive