A majority of Britons support rejoining the European Union's single market even though that would mean the restoration of the free movement of workers from the bloc, according to a poll published on Wednesday.
No, there is exactly nothing useful about daily polls how you would vote if the election that is actually happening in 3-4 years is tomorrow. It has zero worth as information and is only used for the also daily “see, that party got another 0.5%, they will totally be the one ruling party soon/we nend to fight them before they take over!” polarizing bullshit destroying democracies.
There is even less use, when a lot of these polls from (always the same) questionable sources are used by (always the same) publications for their narratives.
This has nothing to do with information and transparency anymore, but a lot with manipulation and propaganda.
Shit takes and bad interpretations do not invalidate the utility of polling.
Yes, they do. Companies are paid for these polls. Today, tomorrow, again next week. They don’t refine their data (usual polling data isn’t changing that quickly), they refine how to get the answer they want. Those polls also don’t show the reaction of public opinion on policies (again those don’t change every other day) for transparency. They show how yesterday’s rage-inducing lie on the front page worked and how it compares to today’s to refine manipulation tactics.
I’m sorry but you have no idea what you’re talking about.
Universities do polls. Non-profits do polls. Independent groups unaffiliated with businesses and news outlets who uses the polls do polls. News outlets do polls. And even businesses paying for polls does not mean suddenly they’re invalidated anymore than any scientific study that isn’t 100% independently funded by a triple checked non-profit (or whatever demands you have) is. Do you throw out every scientific study that doesn’t meet your ridiculous criteria as well?
You are creating an arbitrary bar that is not grounded in reality in order to win an internet argument. You are sitting here making all these accusations about how no pollsters use any proper technique or refine their data yet they literally do. Quinnipiac, for instance, is incredibly respected. You are just mouthing off with pundit talking points.
It’s easy to be a cynic online to mask the fact that you don’t actually know what you’re talking about. This is like arguing about how unsafe cars are in 2023 while citing 1960’s muscle cars but you don’t even have a model as an example or any data points. I literally can’t figure out what is informing your stance other than vague hand waving cynicism picked up from a parent or authority figure who just decided all of stats and polling is nonsense.
Do you throw it every scientific study that doesn’t meet your ridiculous criteria as well?
No I’m talking about always the same polls overvaluing one option being always used by the publications pushing that story again and again.
So you have an actual argument or do you want to keep attacking half a dozen strawman arguments you found between the line I never wrote?
“Oh, No! Someone diagrees with me! Let’s find a couple of things he never actually said and then attack him repeatedly for being anti-science!!”
Are you even serious or is this just trolling at this point?
PS: Yes, a lot of different people do polls. Actually using those, or doing a weighted avarage or just mentioning they exist would be an improvement. But it is not happening, because publications always work with the same polling whose result are beneficial for that publication.
Actually using those, or doing a weighted avarage or just mentioning they exist would be an improvement. But it is not happening, because publications always work with the same polling whose result are beneficial for that publication.
Dude, this is what I’m talking about. There are literally countless organizations that do weighted polls and/or do aggregates of several polls that are rated based on their consistent accuracy and methodology. This entire thing you are calling for, that you were complaining does not exist, already exists and is constantly being improved. I’m not throwing out big accusations, you are taking broad sweeps at stats and polling and asking - really it’s demanding - that they do things they are already doing! I can’t make heads or tails of you. Like 538’s entire raison d’etre is aggregating and interpreting large sets of polls and turning it into political forecasts. Just because some outlets are irresponsible with some polls does not invalidate the whole exercise. This is classic, throwing the baby out with the bathwater
Just stop. You don’t know what you are talking about.
No, unlike you I know what I’m talking about. I know how YouGov does their polls. I know how YouGov was wrong at Scotlands Referendum 2014. I know how they were also wrong with their polls for the Brexit referendum, and also which publications constantly referenced them as a reason to “stay calm… UK will not leave the EU”, which obviously contributed to lower turnout on the anti-Brexit side. And I know -again unlike you- why always the people wanting to tell a story about UK’s EU support are referencing YouGov polls. Because they are always overvalueing certain positions again and again.
Saying something is more probable is not the same as saying it is or isn’t going to happen.
Would you choose to undergo an elective surgery to fix your broken leg if it had a 20% chance of killing you? No, because that’s even worse odds than Russian roulette, which no sane person would ever play. Suddenly when it comes to politics, anything 40% or below is basically impossible for people. It’s utterly bizarre and you’re falling into the exact same trappings.
deleted by creator
No, there is exactly nothing useful about daily polls how you would vote if the election that is actually happening in 3-4 years is tomorrow. It has zero worth as information and is only used for the also daily “see, that party got another 0.5%, they will totally be the one ruling party soon/we nend to fight them before they take over!” polarizing bullshit destroying democracies.
There is even less use, when a lot of these polls from (always the same) questionable sources are used by (always the same) publications for their narratives.
This has nothing to do with information and transparency anymore, but a lot with manipulation and propaganda.
deleted by creator
Yes, they do. Companies are paid for these polls. Today, tomorrow, again next week. They don’t refine their data (usual polling data isn’t changing that quickly), they refine how to get the answer they want. Those polls also don’t show the reaction of public opinion on policies (again those don’t change every other day) for transparency. They show how yesterday’s rage-inducing lie on the front page worked and how it compares to today’s to refine manipulation tactics.
I’m sorry but you have no idea what you’re talking about.
Universities do polls. Non-profits do polls. Independent groups unaffiliated with businesses and news outlets who uses the polls do polls. News outlets do polls. And even businesses paying for polls does not mean suddenly they’re invalidated anymore than any scientific study that isn’t 100% independently funded by a triple checked non-profit (or whatever demands you have) is. Do you throw out every scientific study that doesn’t meet your ridiculous criteria as well?
You are creating an arbitrary bar that is not grounded in reality in order to win an internet argument. You are sitting here making all these accusations about how no pollsters use any proper technique or refine their data yet they literally do. Quinnipiac, for instance, is incredibly respected. You are just mouthing off with pundit talking points.
It’s easy to be a cynic online to mask the fact that you don’t actually know what you’re talking about. This is like arguing about how unsafe cars are in 2023 while citing 1960’s muscle cars but you don’t even have a model as an example or any data points. I literally can’t figure out what is informing your stance other than vague hand waving cynicism picked up from a parent or authority figure who just decided all of stats and polling is nonsense.
No I’m talking about always the same polls overvaluing one option being always used by the publications pushing that story again and again.
So you have an actual argument or do you want to keep attacking half a dozen strawman arguments you found between the line I never wrote?
“Oh, No! Someone diagrees with me! Let’s find a couple of things he never actually said and then attack him repeatedly for being anti-science!!”
Are you even serious or is this just trolling at this point?
PS: Yes, a lot of different people do polls. Actually using those, or doing a weighted avarage or just mentioning they exist would be an improvement. But it is not happening, because publications always work with the same polling whose result are beneficial for that publication.
Dude, this is what I’m talking about. There are literally countless organizations that do weighted polls and/or do aggregates of several polls that are rated based on their consistent accuracy and methodology. This entire thing you are calling for, that you were complaining does not exist, already exists and is constantly being improved. I’m not throwing out big accusations, you are taking broad sweeps at stats and polling and asking - really it’s demanding - that they do things they are already doing! I can’t make heads or tails of you. Like 538’s entire raison d’etre is aggregating and interpreting large sets of polls and turning it into political forecasts. Just because some outlets are irresponsible with some polls does not invalidate the whole exercise. This is classic, throwing the baby out with the bathwater
Just stop. You don’t know what you are talking about.
No, unlike you I know what I’m talking about. I know how YouGov does their polls. I know how YouGov was wrong at Scotlands Referendum 2014. I know how they were also wrong with their polls for the Brexit referendum, and also which publications constantly referenced them as a reason to “stay calm… UK will not leave the EU”, which obviously contributed to lower turnout on the anti-Brexit side. And I know -again unlike you- why always the people wanting to tell a story about UK’s EU support are referencing YouGov polls. Because they are always overvalueing certain positions again and again.
Saying something is more probable is not the same as saying it is or isn’t going to happen.
Would you choose to undergo an elective surgery to fix your broken leg if it had a 20% chance of killing you? No, because that’s even worse odds than Russian roulette, which no sane person would ever play. Suddenly when it comes to politics, anything 40% or below is basically impossible for people. It’s utterly bizarre and you’re falling into the exact same trappings.