the Farmers’ Almanac is predicting the “return of the BRRR.”

Frigid temperatures are expected for much of Alberta, Saskatchewan, Manitoba, and westernmost Ontario.

Newfoundland and Labrador will experience icy temperatures but won’t be nearly as cold as the middle of the country.

British Columbia will luckily dodge this frosty forecast

  • buffaloseven@kbin.social
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    1 year ago

    Just a friendly FYI that the Almanacs have essentially no skill in seasonal forecasting and rely on vagaries and generalities to try and convince readers that the wide net the cast to try and capture chance is actually skill.

    Even physical sciences based forecasts can struggle to hit 50-60% skill on seasonal forecasts. Even in the highlights posted here:

    • Of course the Canadian Prairies and NW Ontario will be cold; they’re some of the coldest places in North America in winter, often even colder than many parts of the Arctic as the northwest flow along the western flank of the Polar Vortex helps to funnel some of the coldest air on the planet in Siberia across the pole and through the Canadian Arctic southwards through the Prairies.
    • Newfoundland and Labrador routinely get blasts of bitterly cold Arctic air from northern Quebec and Baffin Island as passing lows lift northwards into Baffin Island and occlude into the Polar Vortex, but it’s softened by the relatively warm waters of the adjacent Atlantic waters. Of course they won’t be as cold as the land-locked continental regions to the west.
    • B.C., especially the western half of it, is among the warmest places in Canada in winter with the cold air routinely kept at bay by a relatively mild onshore flow from the Pacific. The exception is when a particularly strong Arctic outbreak develops over western Canada and a potent high develops over the Rockies which provides a strong surface outflow that drives the Arctic air over the Rockies and out through the coast.

    This “forecast” literally just describes essentially every winter in Canada. The fact this pseudoscience that is demonstrably unskilled gets so much visibility each year.