Any predictions at this point are nothing more than wild speculation. Fuck’s sake, Putin’s personal caterer led a mercenary coup attempt on Moscow. How firm or how weak Putin’s grip on power is in light of absurdities like that is an absolute mystery to all of us on here. Hell, might be a mystery to the powers that be, and even Putin himself.
The West attempted desperately to keep economic ties with Russia open until it was apparent that the war would not end quickly; the idea that the decisionmakers in our governments are drooling at the prospect of Russia falling apart and cratering trade for the next decade instead of desiring a quick return to normality is just… not in-line with the historic priorities of the post Cold-War West.
First off, why should we care? As long as they are in their own country minding their own business, not committing atrocities they can live in peace.
Most likely sanctions stay untill a deal on reparations is hammed out.
But Russia is safe to withdraw under her own nuclear umbrella and be sure no soldiers from other countries will set foot in Russia. The consequences would be too dire to even consider. There is no invading a nuclear power by other countries, especially not one with capable ICBM’s.
The only danger Russia is in, comes from other Russians. Factional powerstruggles and such, the (Russian) population at large is not interested in these things.
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Any predictions at this point are nothing more than wild speculation. Fuck’s sake, Putin’s personal caterer led a mercenary coup attempt on Moscow. How firm or how weak Putin’s grip on power is in light of absurdities like that is an absolute mystery to all of us on here. Hell, might be a mystery to the powers that be, and even Putin himself.
The West attempted desperately to keep economic ties with Russia open until it was apparent that the war would not end quickly; the idea that the decisionmakers in our governments are drooling at the prospect of Russia falling apart and cratering trade for the next decade instead of desiring a quick return to normality is just… not in-line with the historic priorities of the post Cold-War West.
More likely is that the prospect of hurting Russia too bad and it falling apart is one of the key drivers of the hesitation for more support.
This was the line of reasoning:
None of these options look appetizing.
First off, why should we care? As long as they are in their own country minding their own business, not committing atrocities they can live in peace.
Most likely sanctions stay untill a deal on reparations is hammed out.
But Russia is safe to withdraw under her own nuclear umbrella and be sure no soldiers from other countries will set foot in Russia. The consequences would be too dire to even consider. There is no invading a nuclear power by other countries, especially not one with capable ICBM’s.
The only danger Russia is in, comes from other Russians. Factional powerstruggles and such, the (Russian) population at large is not interested in these things.